سنجش میزان تاب‌آوری و چگونگی توزیع آن در محلات شهر تهران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

چکیده

در کشورهای بیشتر توسعه­یافته تغییرات چشمگیری در نگرش به مخاطرات دیده می­شود؛ به طوری که دیدگاه غالب از تمرکز صرف بر کاهش آسیب­پذیری به افزایش تاب­آوری در مقابل سوانح تغییر یافته است. بر این اساس، در برنامه­ریزی­های کاهش مخاطرات باید به دنبال ایجاد و تقویت ویژگی­های جوامع تاب­آور باشند. در این میان، به مفهوم عام، شهر تهران به دلیل شرایط خاص طبیعی و جغرافیایی آن مستعد شوک­های متعددی ازجمله زلزله، سیل، و... است که ضرورت توجه به مفهوم تاب­آوری شهری را می­رساند.در این مقاله هدف سنجش تاب­آوری شهر تهران به منزلۀ اولین گام در فرایند تاب­آور کردن شهر با به­کارگیری مدل و شاخص­های تعیین­کنندۀ تاب­آوری و بیان روشی برای بررسی آن است. برای نیل به این هدف با استفاده از داده­های آماری سال 1390 محلات شهر تهران و به­کارگیری روش شاخص­های تاب­آوری خط مبنا برای جوامع و تمرکز بر مجموعه­ای از شاخص­ها بر اساس مدل اصلاح­شدۀ تاب­آوری مکانی بلایا (DROP)، عرضه­شده از سوی کاتر و همکاران در سال 2008، مدل مفهومی مطالعه ساخته و برای محاسبۀ شاخص تلفیقی تاب­آوری مدل تحلیلی F’ANP، که ترکیبی از تحلیل عاملی و مدل شبکه­ای ANP است، استفاده شده است. پس از تدقیق مدل مفهومی از طریق انجام تحلیل عاملی تأییدی، به تفکیک ابعاد تاب­آوری، 23 شاخص تبیین­کنندۀ تاب­آوری شهری در شهر تهران، پس از تحلیل عاملی اکتشافی، به شش عامل اجتماعی­ـ اقتصادی، دسترسی به خدمات عمومی، زیرساخت­ـ جامعه­ای، فضای باز (زیرساختی)، فعالیتی­ـ اقتصادی، زیرساختی منجر گردیدند که این عوامل و شاخص­های آن­ها برای انجام فرایند مدل تحلیلی F’ANP به منظور استخراج ضریب اهمیت نسبی به کار گرفته شدند. این ضریب اهمیت با روش تلفیق حسابی ترکیب و نهایتاً شاخص تلفیقی تاب­آوری محلات شهر تهران به دست آمد و در سطح محلات شهر تهران ترسیم گردید. نتایج تاب­آوری بیشتر محلات نیمۀ شمالی تهران را در مقایسه با نیمۀ جنوبی نشان می­دهند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Measurement of Resilience and Its Distribution in Tehran Districts

چکیده [English]

In more developed countries significant changes have occurred in the ways in which risks are viewed, so much that the prevailing view has shifted from a mere concentration of vulnerability reduction towards increasing resilience against disasters. On this basis, risk reduction programmes should seek the creation and reinforcement of resilient communities. Due to its particular natural and geographic conditions, Tehran has been vulnerable against a series of shocks including earthquakes, floods etc., rendering the attention to the concept of resilience all the more necessary.
The present paper views the measurement of resilience in Tehran using indicators, and the offering of an investigation method, as a first step towards making the city more resilient. This is done here based on Tehran districts’ 2001 statistical data, using ‘Baseline Resilience Indicators for Communities’ (BRIC) methods, and with a focus on a series of indicators based on amended ‘Disaster Resilience of Place’ (DROP) model as presented by Cutter et al. A conceptual model is made on this basis, and used to calculate a combined resilience indicator using ‘Fuzzy Analytic Network Process’ (F’ANP), which is comprised of factor analysis and ANP network model. After accurately defining the conceptual model through affirming factor analysis according to resilience levels, Tehran’s 23 resilience indicators were determined under six categories socio-economic, public service accessibility, infrastructural-social, open space (infrastructural), activity-economic, and infrastructural. These factors and their indicators were then used to process F’ANP analytical model. This significance factor was then combined with arithmetic combination method, and eventually the resilience combined indicator was worked out, and then applied to Tehran districts. The results show higher resilience levels for the northern half of Tehran compared to its southern half. 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Urban resilience
  • DROP
  • Factor analysis
  • F’ANP
  • Tehran

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 03 خرداد 1399
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 29 دی 1399
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 11 دی 1399

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