ارزیابی «آگاهی ـ تحلیل ـ اقدام» برنامه‌های توسعۀ شهری و منطقه‌ای اصفهان در مواجهه با اثرات تغییرات اقلیمی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس‌ارشد برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه هنر ایران، تهران، ایران

2 استاد دانشکدۀ معماری و شهرسازی، دانشگاه هنر ایران، تهران، ایران

چکیده

اهداف و پیشینه: تغییر اقلیم یکی از مهم‌ترین چالش‌هایی است که بشر در قرن 21 با آن مواجه شده و به‌مثابة یک تهدید بالقوه، بر محیط‌های انسان‌ساخت و طبیعی ‌تأثیر گذارده است. بر اساس تحقیقات مختلف، تغییر اقلیم در مناطق گسترده‌ای از جهان، ازجمله کشور ایران در حال وقوع است. بیشترین مخاطرات طبیعی اتفاق‌افتاده در استان اصفهان شامل خشکسالی و کم‌آبی، فرونشست زمین، آلودگی هوای ناشی از بروز پدیده گردوغبار، همه متأثر از تغییرات اقلیمی بوده و معضلات اقتصادی، اجتماعی، و زیست‌محیطی را همراه داشته‌ است. درنتیجة تغییرات اقلیمی، شهرها ممکن است در عرضة حتی ابتدایی‌ترین خدمات به ساکنان خود با مشکلات جدی مواجه شوند. بنابراین ضروری است برای انطباق با اثرات و کاهش خطرات تغییرات اقلیمی از طریق مداخلات سیاسی در همة سطوح برنامه‌ریزی مکانی اقدام شود.
 
مواد و روشها: در این پژوهش با استفاده از روش تحلیل محتوای کمی و کیفی، 31 شاخص‌ در 10 بعد و نیز در سه مؤلفة آگاهی، تحلیل، و اقدام (رویکرد تحلیلی «A-A-A»)، به ارزیابی شش برنامة توسعة شهری و منطقه‌ای اصفهان در مواجهه با اثرات تغییرات اقلیمی پرداخته شده است. برای امتیازدهی از دستورالعمل کدگذاری سه‌نقطه‌ای و برای رتبه‌بندی آنها از آزمون آماری ناپارامتریک فریدمن استفاده شده است.
 
نتایج و جمعبندی: نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهند که با توجه به رویکرد تحلیلی «A-A-A»، برنامه‌های یادشده از سطح آگاهی بسیار پایین، سطح متوسط توانایی تحلیلی، و واکنش اقدام محدود برای ادغام مسائل و اثرات مربوط به تغییرات اقلیمی در سطح محلی برخوردار هستند. از میان شش برنامة توسعة مورد ارزیابی، طرح مجموعة شهری اصفهان با 70٫97٪ بیشترین و سند آمایش استان اصفهان با 46٫77٪ کمترین میزان مواجهه با اثرات تغییرات اقلیمی را در بر داشته‌اند. درنتیجه نقش برنامه‌های توسعة اصفهان برای ادغام جدی مسائل تغییر اقلیم با سایر موضوعات هنوز محدود است. بنابراین توصیه می‌شود برنامه‌ریزانْ رویکردهای کاهش و سازگاری با تغییرات اقلیمی را برای مواجهه کارآمدتر و بهنگام در برابر اثرات نامطلوب این تغییرات به‌طور زمینه‌دار در برنامه‌های توسعه لحاظ کنند تا با اقدامات و فعالیت‌های توسعة محلی خود بر بهبود شرایط موجود و آتی اثر بگذارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation of «awareness- analysis- action» of urban and regional development plans of Isfahan in facing the effects of climate change

نویسندگان [English]

  • Zahra Mahvash Mohammadi 1
  • Naser Barakpour 2
1 MSc, aculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, Iran University of Art, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, Iran University of Art, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Climate change is one of the most important challenges that humanity is facing in the 21st century, and as a potential threat, it has affected man-made and natural environments. As a result of climate change, cities may face serious problems in providing even the most basic services to their residents. According to various researches, climate change is happening in wide areas of the world, including Iran. The most natural hazards that have occurred in Isfahan province include drought and water scarcity, land subsidence, air pollution caused by the phenomenon of dust caused by climate change, and have brought economic, social and environmental problems. Therefore, it is necessary to adapt and reduce the effects and risks of climate change through political interventions at all levels of spatial planning. Using quantitative and qualitative content analysis method, 31 indicators in 10 dimensions and also in three components according to the analytical (A-A-A) approach have evaluated six urban and regional development plans in Isfahan in facing the effects of climate change. Three-point coding guidelines were used for scoring, and Friedman's non-parametric statistical test was used in SPSS software to rank them. The results of the research show that the Isfahan metropolitan area plan with 70.97%, the fourth five-year plan of the Isfahan Municipality with 57.26% and the spatial development of Isfahan province with 46.77% had the lowest exposure to the effects of climate change. Finally, the general evaluation of the development plans has shown that according to the analytical approach (A-A-A), they have a very low level of awareness, an average level of analytical ability and a limited action response to integrate issues and effects related to climate change at the local level. Therefore, the role of Isfahan development plans to seriously integrate climate change issues with other issues is still limited.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • Emission reduction measures
  • Climatic adaptation
  • (A-A-A) approach
  • Evaluation of development plans
  • Isfahan city and region
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