Introducing A Model for Earthquake Risk Assessment and Reduction in Economically Valuable Historic Urban Fabrics (Case Study: Ardabil Historic Bazaar)

Document Type : Original Article


1 M.Sc. Civil Engineering—Eathquake, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology Research

2 Associate Proffesor, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology Research

3 Associate Proffesor., International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology Research


The occurrence of earthquakes can have serious social and economic ramifications in economically valuable urban fabrics such as traditional bazaars. Despite the significance of such fabrics, there have been few studies on earthquake safety upgrading and crisis management in historic fabrics: a fact that necessitates further research on such topics.
Aiming at better understanding seismic hazards in economically valuable historic fabrics, the present paper proposes a new model based on hazard measures, seismic vulnerability and confrontation capacities against earthquakes.  These measures and quantitative components were determined based on a study of the consequences of previous earthquakes, the related technical literature, and analytic, comprehensive assessments. Also, the weighing factors of these measures were determined with reference to expert opinions and the AHP method. The proposed method was then applied in the Ardabil’s traditional bazaar, studying the methods of correcting hazard measures to correspond with operational interventions. The assessments showed that the proposed model is capable of assessing seismic hazards in traditional bazaars, and can be used to identify and prioritise hazard reduction interventions, and propose short-, mid-, and long-term programmes


  1. Adams, B.J. & C.K. Huyck & M. Mio & C. Sungbin & S. Ghosh
  2. & H.C. Chung, ... & B. Mansouri. The Bam (Iran) Earthquake
  3. of December 26, 2003: Preliminary Reconnaissance Using
  4. Remotely Sensed Data and the VIEWS (Visualizing the
  5. Impacts of Earthquakes with Satellite Images) System,
  6. MCEER, 2004.
  7. Akkar, S. & J.J. Bommer. “Empirical Equations for the
  8. Prediction of PGA, PGV, and Spectral Accelerations in
  9. Europe, the Mediterranean Region, and the Middle East”, in
  10. Seismological Research Letters, 81(2) (2010), pp. 195-206.
  11. Alighadar, S. & A.H. Falllahi & J. Kiyono & N. Rizqi Fitrasha &
  12. M. Miyajima. Emergency Evacuation during a Disaster, Study
  13. Case: Timche Muzaffariyye-Tabriz Bazaar, 15 WCEE LISBOA,
  15. Amini Hosseini, K. Golestan Palace, Tehran Bazzar and Their
  16. Surrounding Old Urban Fabrics in Tehran, Proceedings of
  17. UNESCO Chair Programme on Cultural Heritage and Risk
  18. Management, International Training Course on Disaster
  19. Risk Management of Cultural Heritage, 2013.
  20. Assari, A. & T.M. Mahesh & M.R. Emtehani & E. Assari.
  21. “Comparative Sustainability of Bazaar in Iranian Traditional
  22. Cities: Case Studies in Isfahan and Tabriz”, in International
  23. Journal on “Technical and Physical Problems of Engineering”
  24. (IJTPE), Published by International Organization on TPE
  25. (IOTPE), ISSN 2077-3528, 2011, pp. 18-24
  26. Reconstruction of Recent Earthquakes in Iran”, in Disaster
  27. Prevention and Management: An International Journal, 8(1)
  28. (1999), pp. 5-20.
  29. Hessami, K. & P. Mobayen & H. Tabassi. Revised Version of
  30. Active Fault Maps of Iran, Seismotectonic Dept.,Seismology
  31. Research Center, IIEES, Iran, 2013.
  32. Hosseini, K.A. “Earthquake Risk Management in Historical
  33. and Old Urban Fabrics, Case Study of Tehran Baazar”, in
  34. Secend European Conference on Earthquake Engineering
  35. and Seismology, Istanbul, 2014.
  36. Japan International Cooperation Agency, JICA. “The Study
  37. on Seismic Microzoning of the Greater Tehran Area in the
  38. Islamic Republic of Iran”, Final Report, Main Report, SSF JR
  39. -186, 2000.
  40. Jigyasu, R. & M. Murthy & G. Boccardi & C. Marrion & D.
  41. Douglas & J. King, ... & M. Osihn. Heritage and Resilience:
  42. Issues and Opportunities for Reducing Disaster Risks, 2013.
  43. Keshavarzian, A. Bazaar and State in Iran: The Politics of the
  44. Tehran Marketplace, Vol. 26, Cambridge University Press,
  46. Masoudi Nejad, Reza. “Social Bazaar and Commercial
  47. Bazaar: Comparative Study of Spatial Role of Iranian
  48. Bazaar in the Historical Citiesin Different Socio-economical
  49. Context”, in Proceedings of 5th InternationalSpace Syntax
  50. Symposium, Vol. 1 (2005), pp. 197-200.
  51. Modena, C. & F. Da Porto & C. Filippo & M.A.R.C.O. Munari
  52. & E.L.E.N.A. Simonato. “Cultural Heritage Buildings and the
  53. Abruzzo Earthquake: Performance and Post-earthquake
  54. Actions”, in Advanced Materials Research, Vol. 133 (2010),
  55. pp. 3-17. Trans Tech Publications.
  56. Nejad Ebrahimi, A. & F. Pour Rahimian & M. Sahraei Loron.
  57. Barbacci, N. Preserving Haiti’s Gingerbread Houses,
  58. Earthquake Mission Report December 2010.
  59. Barbat, A.H. & M.L. Carreño & L.G. Pujades & N. Lantada &
  60. O.D. Cardona & M.C. Marulanda. “Seismic Vulnerability and
  61. Risk Evaluation Methods for Urban Areas, A Review with
  62. Application to a Pilot Area”, in Structure and Infrastructure
  63. Engineering, 6(1-2) (2010), pp. 17-38.
  64. Beheshti, M. & C. Adle. 3DCG Reconstitution and Virtual
  65. Reality of UNESCO World Heritage in Danger: The Citadel of
  66. Bam, 2008.
  67. Carreño, M.L. & O.D. Cardona & A.H. Barbat. “Urban Seismic
  68. Risk Evaluation: A Holistic Approach”, in Natural Hazards,
  69. (1) (2007), pp. 137-172.
  70. Coburn, A.W. & R.J.S. Spence & A. Pomonis. “Factors
  71. Determining Human Casualty Levels in Earthquakes:
  72. Mortality Prediction in Building Collapse”, in Proceedings of
  73. the 10th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, July
  74. , pp. 5989-5994.
  75. Davidson, R. & H.C. Shah. “A Multidisciplinary Urban
  76. Earthquake Disaster Risk Index”, in Earthquake Spectra,
  77. (2) (1997), pp. 211–223.
  78. Dowrick, D.J. Earthquake Resistant Design, New York, NY;
  79. John Wiley and Sons Inc, 1988.
  80. Ghafory-Ashtiany, M. “Rescue Operation and
  82. IRANIAN BAZAARS: Case Study of the Historic Bazaar of
  83. Tabriz”, in International Journal of Architectural Research
  84. (Archnet IJAR), 7(2) (2013), pp. 61-75.
  85. Razavi, H.S.N. “The Critical Role of Open Space in Hazard
  86. Mitigation (Earthquake) in Traditional Commercial Spaces:
  87. A Case Study–Qazvin Old Bazaar”, in WIT Transactions on
  88. Information and Communication Technologies, 44 (2012),
  89. pp. 437-448.
  90. Salgado-Galvez, M.A. & D.Z. Romero & C.A. Velasquez &
  91. M.L. Carreño & O.D. Cardona & A.H. Barbat. “Urban Seismic
  92. Risk Index for Medellin, Colombia, Based on Probabilistic
  93. Loss and Casualties Estimations”, in Natural Hazards, 80(3)
  94. (2016), pp. 1995-2021.
  95. Tavakoli, B. & M. Ghafory-Ashtiany. “Seismic Hazard
  96. Assessment of Iran”, in Annals of Geophysics, 42(6) (1999),
  97. pp. 1013-1021.
  98. Walker, R.T. & E. Bergman & J. Jackson & M. Ghorashi
  99. & M. Talebian. “The 2002 June 22 Changureh (Avaj)
  100. Earthquake in Qazvin Province, Northwest Iran: Epicentral
  101. Relocation, Source Parameters, Surface Deformation and
  102. Geomorphology”, in Geophysical Journal International,
  103. (2) (2005), pp. 707-720.
  104. Yücel, G. & G. Arun. “Istanbul Grand Bazaar Evacuation
  105. System Vulnerability Assessment”, in Advanced Materials
  106. Research, Vol. 133 (2010), pp. 611-616, Trans Tech
  107. Publications.
  108. Zebardast, E. & M.J. Koohsari. “Mapping Social Vulnerability
  109. to Earthquake Hazards by Using Analytic Hierarchy Process
  110. (AHP) and GIS in Tehran City”, in Proceedings of Map Asia
  111. Conference, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 2007.