Towards an Operational Framework of Crowd Evacuation Simulation in Historic Bazaars in Fire Disasters

Document Type : Original Article


PhD Candidate, Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, Shahid Beheshti University


Fire disasters have always threatened Iran’s historic bazaars. There is a need, therefore, for more in-depth speculations about how to evacuate physically, socially and culturally complex bazaars in emergency situations, particularly as they do not comply with modern safety standards. In this context, simulation is a helpful tool to optimise the planning of emergency evacuation. It can highlight constraints such as bottlenecks, narrow passageways and obstacles (goods, certain functions and flammable substances), so that authorities can devise evacuation strategies beforehand. It is necessary, however, to have a workable framework of evacuation which takes people’s behavioural patterns into account, prior to simulation. Since any proposed framework initially focuses on interactions between people and their built environments, there are no considerations about fire and smoke spread rates. The present proposed framework aims at recognition of prerequisites of evacuation simulation in historic bazaars. The paper is based on field studies on Tabriz and Istanbul bazaars, as well as library studies focused on concepts of emergency evacuation, crowd-caused crises and effective building properties, in order to identify practical simulation requirements. Recognising the importance of interactions between people and their built environments, the paper concludes that two key issues of physical environments on one hand, and human-psychological factors on the other must be taken into account in simulation processes.


دانشنامۀ جهان اسلام، 2011، قابل دسترسی در:
ذوالفقارزاده، حسن و صنم جابری. تحلیلی بر بازار تبریز، قزوین: دانشگاه بینالمللی امام خمینی، 1394.
شرکت کندوکاو توسعۀ پایدار، مهرماه 1394.
عسگری، علی و سولماز ارژنگی. مدیریت بحران ازدحام جمعیت: مفاهیم، نظریهها و روشها، همدان: نورعلم، 1396.
فلاحی، علیرضا. تأملاتی بر رویکردها و مدلهای بازسازی پس از سانحه، تهران: سازمان پیشگیری و مدیریت بحران شهر تهران، 1396.
Borshchev , Andrei. The Big Book of Simulation Modeling, Visit Amazon’s Andrei Borshchev Page, 2013.
Bryan, J. “A Selected Historical Review of Human Behavior in Fire”, in Fire Protection Engineering, 16 (2002), pp. 4-10.
Dias, C. & M. Sarvi & N. Shiwakoti & M. Burd. “Turning Angle Effect on Emergency Egress”, in Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, Issue 2312 (2012), pp. 120-127.
Fahy, R. & G. Proulxm. “Toward Creating a Database on Delay Times to Start Evacuation and Walking Speeds for Use in Cvacuation Modelling”, in HUMAN BEHAVIOUR IN FIRE, 2001, pp. 175–183.
H La, M. & W. J Ha & M. Z La & S. J Ha & L. S Mb & W. Q Sa. “Pre-evacuation Human Reactions in Fires: An Attribution Analysis Considering Psychological Process”, in Procedia Engineering, 52 (2013), pp. 290-296.
Helbing, D. & L. Farkas & T. Vicsek. “Simulating Dynamic Features of Escape Panic”, in Nature, 407(6803) (2000), pp. 487-490.
Kinateder, M.T. & E.D. Kuligowski & P.A. Reneke & R.D. Peacock. “A Review of Risk Perception in Building Fire Evacuation”, in NIST Technical Note, 1840 (2014, September), p. 9.
Kobes , M. & I. Helsloot & B. de Vries & J. G. Post. “Building Safety and Human Behaviour in Fire: A Literature Review”, in Fire Saf J, (2009), pp. 53-66.
Kobes , M. & I. Helsloot & B. de Vries & J. G. Post. “Building Safety and Human Behaviour in Fire: A Literature Review”, in Fire Saf J, 45(1) (2010), pp. 1-11.
Kuligowski, E. & S. Gwynne. “The Need for Behavioral Theory in Evacuation Modeling”, in Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics, 2010, pp. 721-732.
Kuligowski, E. “Computer Evacuation Models for Buildings”, in SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering, NewYork: Springer, 2016, pp. 2152-2180.
Kuligowski, E. “Predicting Human Behavior During Fires”, in Fire Technology, 49(1) (2013), pp. 101-120.
Müller-Wiener, W. Bildlexikon zur Topographie Istanbuls: Byzantion-Konstantinupolis-Istanbul bis zum Beginn des 17, Jahrhunderts, Germany: Ernst Wasmuth Verlag, 1977.
Ozel, F. The Computer Model “BGRAF”: A Cognitive Approach to Emergency Egress Simulation, A dissertation for the degree of Doctor of Architecture in The University of Michigan, 1987, pp. 78-83.
Pauls, J. “A Personal Perspective on Research, Consulting and Codes/ Standards Development in Fire‐related Human Behaviour, 1969–1999, with an Emphasis on Space and Time Factors”, in FAM, Fire and Materials, 23( 6,Human Behaviour in Fire) (1999, November/December), pp. 265-272.
Reicher, S. “‘The Crowd’ Century: Reconciling Practical Success with Theoretical Failure”, in British Journal of Social Psychology, 1996, pp. 535-553.
Sim, J. Human Behaviour in Fires, Summary Report. Portsmonth Polytechnic, UK, 1992.
Sime, J. “Perceived Time Available: The Margin of Safety in Fires”, in Fire Safety Science – Proceedings of The First International Symposium, New York: Hemisphere Publishing Corp, 1986, pp. 561-569.
Still, G. Crowd Dynamics, PhD Thesis, University of Warwick, UK, 2000.
Sun, C. & B. Vries. “AN ARCHITECTURE-BASED MODEL FOR UNDERGROUND SPACE EVACUATION SIMULATION”, in W. Borutzky, A. Orsoni, and R. Zobel (eds), Proceedings of the 20th European Conference on Modelling and Simulation ECMS, Bonn, 2006, pp. 578-583.
Tan , L. & M. Hu & H. Lin. “Agent-based Simulation of Building Evacuation: Combininghuman Behavior with Predictable Spatial Accessibility in a Fire Emergency”, in Information Sciences, 295 (2015, February 20), pp. 53-66.
Turner, J. “Towards a Cognitive Redefinition of the Social Group”, in Social Identity and Intergroup Relations, 0(1988), pp. 1-18.
Wood, P.G. “A Survey of Behavior in Fires”, in Fires and Human Behaviour, Chichester, U.K.: John Wiley and Son, 1980, pp. 83-96.
YÜCEL , G. & A. Görün. “Istanbul Grand Bazaar Evacuation System Vulnerability Assessment”, in Advanced Materials Research, Vol. 133-134 (October 2010), pp. 611-616, at doi:10.4028/
YÜCEL, G. Istanbul Grand Bazaar Evacuation (S. Arzhangi, Interviewer).
Zhao, C. & M. Liu. “A Post-fire Survey on the Pre-evacuation Human Behavior”, in Fire Technology, 45(1) (2009), pp. 71-95. (1388, آبان 15). (1388, آبان 16).